EventPrediction #83

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In World Affairs, consterdine considers...

Iran will launch a nuclear missile at Israel in 2009

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Note: This prediction has now closed, and is waiting for consterdine to confirm the final outcome

Quotes_1aI forecast it 75% likelyQuotes_1b

Israel is being as rash and insensitive as it can in it's destruction of Gaza City. Iran is looking for a reason to create an explosive act on the World stage. I hope my prediction is wrong.





Category: World Affairs

Tags: politics, war, Israel, Iran

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Comments49 current forecasts

  • 137

    JohnBee forecast it as 0% likely, 3 months ago

    Success rate: 17% | Status: Chump | My site

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    PAUL10071972 forecast it as 0% likely, 4 months ago

    Success rate: 11% | Status: Chump

    Quotes_2_aIRAN
    IRAN WILL NOT STRIKE FIRST THEY WILL WAIT UNTIL ISRAEL STRIKES FIRSTQuotes_2_b
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    aaronvsmith forecast it as 0% likely, 5 months ago

    Success rate: 10% | Status: Chump

    Quotes_2_aThey wish they had one!
    If they had one they would have already done it!Quotes_2_b
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    amild73 forecast it as 0% likely, 5 months ago

    Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie

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    CuriousCrystal forecast it as 50% likely, 5 months ago

    Success rate: 8% | Status: Chump

  • 56

    martin82 forecast it as 4% likely, 6 months ago

    Success rate: 18% | Status: Chump

  • Default_profile_small_m2

    clamcyp forecast it as 7% likely, 6 months ago

    Success rate: 13% | Status: Chump

  • 179

    Joana_Luar forecast it as 85% likely, 7 months ago

    Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie

  • 173

    Fusedhead forecast it as 1% likely, 9 months ago

    Success rate: 25% | Status: Chump

    Quotes_2_aCrazy yes, stupid.. No
    Even tough Iran is looking for a reason to create an explosive act on the World stage, they would rather extort the world and US like North Korea for money and food etc. Not to mention they haven't even produced enough weapon grade Plutonium yet to make a Nuke. So as far as it happening in 09, not a chance.Quotes_2_b
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    okamalo forecast it as 1% likely, 9 months ago

    Success rate: 25% | Status: Grasshopper

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    StephenFleitas forecast it as 15% likely, 9 months ago

    Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie

    Quotes_2_aSummer '09
    This will most likely not happen, It will be the other way around though. BTW! Iran is NO Iraq and a military confrontation between the two will set the region up in flames... Iran has already developed a sold fuel, sectional missile. ICBM's are created in this format and nuclear weapons are usually placed on them. Iran has successfully fired one of these rockets. It can reach as far as Moscow, as well as Southern Italy... Tel Avive will be the first place bombs fall, if Iran is attacked. BTW these missiles aren't puny Hezzbollah or Hamas ones.... they are HUGE!!!Quotes_2_b
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    LeThaiDuong forecast it as 50% likely, 11 months ago

    Success rate: 25% | Status: Grasshopper

    Quotes_2_amaybe :DQuotes_2_b
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    squirrel forecast it as 50% likely, 11 months ago

    Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie

  • 167

    JonnyBGood forecast it as 3% likely, 11 months ago

    Success rate: 21% | Status: Grasshopper

  • 152

    spacewren forecast it as 30% likely, about 1 year ago

    Success rate: 13% | Status: Grasshopper | My Twitter page

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    graatz forecast it as 0% likely, about 1 year ago

    Success rate: 32% | Status: Rookie With Moves



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GroupThe group forecast

Group forecast
16.0%
likelihood
from
49
forecasts

Undecided The outcome of this prediction is not yet known





  • Based on 49 forecasts
  • Bonus for group success: 490 Future Minutes
  • Ended: 31 Dec 2009, 23:59 PM (GMT +00:00)
  • Added: about 1 year ago





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